2007-08-19 01:05

Hand Evaluation – Tactics ( Probabilities )

PITBULLS:

Bridge is based on the random events of dealing cards. Bidding these cards is not an exact science , so must be guided by the laws of probabilities. When your bidding indicates that a game or slam is highly probable , bid it ! When you can take out insurance during the bidding to determine flaws with your final contract by all means go ahead. KCB is just taking out insurance in many cases after you have decided that partnership assets warrant a slam. Hand evaluation has already determined the level of your contract so do not let a “worst case scenario” stop you from bidding your contract , unless you off two Aces. When the “pot odds” are in your favour , make the bet. This is how you “think the game of Bridge”. You borrow from the Poker players.

Playing the odds is how you play games like Bridge , Poker & life itself. When you make a lead directing double , a penalty double , an overcall or any action in Bridge , you play the odds. Percentages determine how you play contracts , defend contracts , opening leads & bidding. Bridge is also a partnership game. So taking into consideration the odds that partner might hold something , enters the equation also. A penalty double or a lead directing double does not mean you have the contract beat in your own hand. The double means that the odds are in your favour that their contract can be beat with the best opening lead.

Guessing & hoping is not how to play Bridge. Taking single handed shots & just gambling is poor partnership Bridge . When you do guess or gamble in the game of Bridge , you must make “educated guesses”. Educated , in that the odds of the bid succeeding are in your favour. When in doubt , default to just taking your plus. You do not default to trying to be a hero. Being a hero & getting your name written up in the bulletin is very , very anti-percentage.

You hold ♠QJ10x ♥AJx ♦x ♣AK987 everybody vul they open a gambling 3NT so do you double ? Of course you do as the odds are in your favour of beating the contract. There are 10 HCP’s in diamonds to your right , you have 15 HCP so you have identified 25 HCP. The odds favour the remaining 15 HCP’s to be split equally between the remaining two hands. This probability gives partner more than enough to beat 3NT or bid a game our way. When LHO has all the remaining HCP’s , we are in trouble. When partner has all the remaining HCP’s , we have a sure slam. You can not pass since you will put partner in an impossible position in the balancing. He will not play you for 15 HCP’s outside of their suit & pass when you may have game or a slam.

We had a hand recently that supports the above view of playing the odds.. ♠void ♥KJxxxx ♦AKxx ♣AKx . Partner opened 1♥ & I responded 1♠. He bid 3♣ which is our multi purpose strong jump shift. I broke the relay to 3♥ which is our system is a slam try ( limit raise or better ) with 3♥. Partner knew we were in slam range based on our bidding with a high probability of the slam making. However , he tried to take out insurance against me holding XXX in trump by bidding 5♥. I held Qxx of trump & decided that it was not enough help.

This hand is a matter of probabilities & risk taking. ♥xxx is the worst holding I could have. I also could hold many other holdings that 6♥ would be lay down. In the worst case scenario , the slam would make on a 2-2 break with a finesse. Or a 3-1 break with both honours onside. All of the other cases , 6 would be cold or 7 on a finesse. You should just trust your Bridge judgment & bid the slam. This of course , assumes we do not have a bid to checkback for the quality of trump.

Can we have a jump to the 5 level as an insurance policy against bad trumps ? My partner suggests using fast arrival to the 5 level without prior Q bids to ask for very good trump. Good trump should be more than just one trump honour in his opinion. KCB can find the K , Q or Ace of trump. Sometimes with a void in partner suit , you can not use KCB properly. My partner suggests if you use slow arrival , Q bidding first & ask for trump quality later , the bid asks for one honour.