Sunday, July 20, 2008 8:23 pm

Hand Evaluation – Leads ( Three Blind Mice )

PITBULLS:

Guessing is repugnant to Bridge experts. Guessing means you have a chance to single handily go wrong. Bridge is a partnership game & leading blind violates basic Bridge. From my experience , leading blind is one of the worst Bridge sins. In the finals of a KO you hear the auction go

1NT-P-2♣-P

2♠-P- 2NT-P

3NT-P-X-P

Your hand is ♠xxx ♥xxx ♦AKxx ♣xxx so what is your lead ? Partner never doubled 2♣ so a ♣ lead is out. Declarer bid spades but the double calls for an unusual lead so that is a possibility. Partner cannot be doubling for a ♦ lead as you hold the ♦AK . There is a good chance that the double calls for a ♥ lead as that is the suit dummy may have so what is your guess ? My partner guessed to lead a ♣ so 3NTx made with an over trick & -13 IMPS. A ♥ lead beats the contract 3 tricks for +500 & +13 IMPS & you win the KO . Did you lead a ♥ ? If you did , you made a terrible lead !! Lead the ♦A to look at the board & get a signal from partner !!! The board is ♠xx ♥Q10x ♦J10x ♣KQ10xx so partner plays a low ♦ to say switch to the lower of the two obvious switches . You take 5♥ tricks & 2♦ tricks for your +500. Declarer showed terrible judgment leaving in the double with ♠AKQ10x ♥xx ♦Qxx ♣AJx as he knows what is going to happen looking at his ♥ holding. 4♠ will not be doubled & goes for -50.

        The  gambling 3NT has been reduced to an ineffective toy because  the  opponents have "smartened up". They do not just adhere to the  platitude of 4th best from longest & strongest & lead blind after a gambling 3NT . They lead an Ace & watch partners  signal.  When partner does not like that suit , you try a different one .  When  there is a suit wide open , you have two chances to find it .  These Ace leads almost destroyed gambling 3NT's as a  convention. In addition , you wrong side the contract as well as the opponents are defending well against the toy.

              Leading blind is "advantage declarer" so an Ace lead brings partner into the picture. By partner signalling , you have two opinions rather that just one. There are certain "gambling 3NT's" that occur within an auction. If the opponents announce to the table thay have a long running suit , it is deja vu when you are on lead. A player held this hand ♠Q10xx ♥AQxx ♦x ♣Axxx  & made a T/O double of 1♦. RHO XX'd & partner leapt to 3♣. This was passed around to the redoubler who bid 3♦. Opener now bid 3NT most likely based on a club stopper & the long diamond suit. Is this auction not like a gambling 3NT auction ? 

             You  can count their tricks before the opening lead . 6♦ tricks ,  an AK somewhere  & the club king if you give them their 9th trick. You lead the ♥A  to take a look & watch partner's signal. The board hit  with ♠KJx ♥Jxx ♦KJ109xx ♣x . Partner plays the heart  deuce  so you continue to her king. Partner switches to the ♣Q so you now  take 5♣ & 4♥ tricks for down 5 vul for +500 just like in some gambling 3NT auctions gone bad. Blind opening leads are for three now very famous mice.

          What if you err and lead the club Ace ? Partner throws the ♣Queen  so the defence is now simple. You can count 9 tricks for  declarer when he has the spade Ace. When  he does not have  the  spade Ace , he must have the ♥AK on the bidding so its panic  time. You switch to  a heart & take your 4 heart tricks to prevent a huge 15 IMP  loss  your way.   Blind opening leads in these kind of auctions is insulting  partner. You are saying I do not need your input as I will  single handedly find the defence by leading 4th best from  longest &  strongest. Leading an Ace allows you to keep the lead , look at  the board & watch partner's signals. A blind opening lead is  an  all or nothing gamble when the opponents have a long suit ready  to roll. Do not do it !!

            There are other times when you do not make blind opening leads. When partner has made it very plain that she owns their trump suit & doubles , do not lead blind ! Partner converts your T/O double at the one level. Lead a trump as partner knows how to judge the defence but you do not. When partner makes an obvious trump stack double at the 3 level also do not lead blind. Maurice & Susan had a hand recently that shows what happens when you do not lead blind. Maurice opened 2♠ on the terrorist vulnerability with ♠QJ109xx ♥x ♦109xx ♣Qx . They made a T/O double so when 3♥ came around to Susan , she made a trump stack penalty double. Maurice does not want to be a hero & try to guess the lead by leading blind so he dutifully leads a trump. The board hits with ♠xx ♥Kxx ♦Axx ♣AK1098 . Declarer plays small & Susan win the jack holding ♠x ♥AQJxx ♦KQJxx ♣xx. Well it is 2 for 1 time , so Susan cashes the Ace & continues a heart to the King. Declarer now plays the hand double dummy by cashing the ♣AK & continuing a club which Susan ruffs with her 5th heart. She now switches to the ♦K won on the board. Declarer now leads the 4th club & Susan ruffs with her last trump & leads a diamond which declarer ruffs with his last trump. Declarer is now playing the hand in 3NTX & ca not get the board for the 5th club ! He cashes his ♠AK & since he is hand locked he gives up for -500. He took 2♥ tricks , 2♣ tricks , 1♦ trick & 2 ♠ tricks for 7 total  This is with best declarer play. When you lead blind ( guessing ) instead of a trump, an  accident may happen & declarer might come home with +730 instead of the -500. A 20 IMP swing depending  on leading blind vrs not. Always remember the 3 blind mice in the game of Bridge. Guessing opening leads are repugnant to expert Bridge players.

Lead directing doubles & leading blind go together. When you are playing against exuberant opponents who bid by the "seat of their pants" , do not allow partner to lead blind if you can help it. ♠KJx ♥xx ♦Axxx ♣QJxx & you open 1♣ on the terrorist vulnerability & all pass to the balancer who doubles. They bid 2♥ followed by 4NT & one Ace shown & a leap to 6♥. This is a "blind auction" with the very strong hand to your right. They heard the bidding so they are very prepared for a club lead. Are they prepared for a spade lead though with your ♦A to be knocked out ?  I would double to advise partner to not lead a club. If he guesses wrong & leads a diamond , you have gambled losing 4 imps to gain 17. A spade lead beats the contract for a huge swing. Blind opening leads are the enemy of all Bridge players.