2007-09-19 03:35

Hand Evaluation - Lead Analysis ( patterns )

PITBULLS:

Writing these articles on hand evaluation is quite satisfying when “it all comes together “ & you see it in action from another player . Many many articles on opening leads have been written over the past 5 years advising to apply a pattern from a review of the bidding or just translating the bidding into a hand pattern before you make an opening lead. Many articles have commented on the futility of leading blind & just guessing when you can take a look at the dummy. Susan has said that counting takes the fun out of Bridge & that most players just like to guess to have fun. I agree with her whole heartedly. Guessing is fun & when you guess right you can even hand experts a bad board . If you guess wrong though …

Here is Susan playing matchpoints with Tom against Dora & myself. Watch how Susan has benefited from all the articles. Susan has ♠J10xx ♥xx ♦xx ♣AKxxx , hears me open 1♥ & Dora responds 1♠. I rebid 2♦ , Dora raises to 3♦ so I bid the inevitable 3NT. OK , before she makes her opening lead , Susan knows that we play 5 card majors so she does not count but applies a pattern before she makes her opening lead. Looking at her ♣AKxxx she knows that I have ♣QJx in order to bid 3NT. She knows that I have showed 5-4 in the reds so my hand counts out to 5-4-3-1.

Dora has shown maybe 9 cards in diamonds & spades so she cannot have too many clubs. A ♣lead is the obvious lead but which club ? The card gods have dealt you the AK of clubs so you have the option of looking at the dummy rather than making the obvious 4^th best lead . Leading blind even from the correct suit might not be right especially in matchpoints. Why ? because declarer has mapped out a stiff spade in his hand so we get to examine the spade suit on the board. Maybe a spade switch might beat the hand or hold the hand to a minimum number of tricks.

Susan leads the club King to look at the board . ♠Axxx ♥Qx ♦Q10xxx ♣xx so Dora has made a courtesy 3♦ bid in case I have a big hand. Tom plays a huge club denying a club honour & showing 3 of them. You can now give declarer a club trick now by underleading but you know the spades are wide open from your bidding analysis. You switch to a spade & Tom who is also at the table continues the suit. I scamper home with 5♦ , 3♥ & the spade Ace for making 3NT & a cold zero.

For the sake of argument , say you just play “fun Bridge” so you do not apply patterns preferring the guessing element of Bridge. You lead your 4^th best club so I win the club with my QJx as expected. I run the 5♦ tricks so since you play Bridge for fun & do not count out hands you guess that you are squeezed & must guard your spades ( opposite my known stiff ) . Therefore you guess to throw away your two hearts. This subjects Tom to a heart finesse from his ♥Jxxx so I take 5♦, 5♥,1♣ &1♠ for making 6 & a top our way. Guessing is a way of getting a top or bottom depending on your guessing. Experts just simply apply a pattern to save them from guessing. Honestly it is not that hard. Might spoil your guessing fun though L so I would not recommend applying patterns to anybody who likes the thrill of guessing..