Wednesday,
July 24, 2002 2:41 AM
Hand Evaluation -
Optimism vrs Pessimism
PITBULLS:
If I had a dollar for every time
Peter Jones said to Dave Smith “You optimist Butcher !!”, I would be a millionaire . Butcher does play
the game with “rose coloured glasses” so it lands him
in messes from time to time . However
, basing your game of Bridge on pessimism & worst case scenario all
the time is much worse . Bridge is played from randomly dealt cards that in the
long run have to obey the laws of probability . Quite often the worst case scenario
is odds against ever happening but yet people base their bid on
this one statistical event so ignore all other
possibilities.
Playing in Montreal last year
against a team that won the event the previous year ,
I noticed that they played a forcing club system so opened super light all the
time . Quite often pessimism will occur in balancing .
We have all had a bad experience in balancing in our Bridge lives. The “what
if” scenarios of finding partner with her expected points in the opponents hand
so going for a number is a possibility. Is it an odds on possibility though ?? Say you do
not balance in a period over 10 hands . On four of the hands you had a
partial your way , on three of them you could have
pushed them higher , one you had a game your way & two it did not matter .
In this stretch of hands on the double partial swings you have lost 6 imps , 6 imps , 6 imps , 6 imps . In the partials you could
have pushed them higher you have lost 4 IMPS & 4 IMPS.,
The game they stole from you have lost
10 IMPS .
You have lost 40 IMPS to a team that opens
super light by not balancing . You could have balanced &
gone for –500 against their 140 & lose 360 for an 8 imps loss 5 times
to break even !! I am sure that this team in Montreal
robbed opponents blind on occasion with their light openers because of a lack
of balancing by the other teams . Again
, quoting Klimo
the great Polish philosopher “ the greatest risk is not taking one”
. This is the poker player mentality I discussed previously .
Poker players gamble when in the long run it will pay off
. Not gambling when the time calls for it will result in being a losing
Poker player. I repeat my advice. Play Bridge like a good poker player ! Gamble when in the long run it will pay
off !
P ?
1♠ 2♠
P
P
♠xx ♥xx ♦QJxxx ♣AKxx
If you
balance 2NT can you go for –500 ? Yes
, in the worst case scenario you can . Bui in this auction the opponents
have only announced half the deck . Partner can have
up to 10 HCP with
cards in the minors for a double partial swing . Therefore you
balance 2NT & expect to not go for 500 .
Pessimism hurts you in the play of
the hand also . Safety plays for bad breaks are
necessary when the hand is otherwise cold. However , suits
do not always break badly & finesses do not always lose. If you cannot
afford to play for bad breaks , assume they are
breaking & everything is rosy. I have seen so many declarers go down in
slams & games they could have made because they were playing for bad breaks
or positions that were against the odds in the first place. When
the suits did break , you explain to partner well in
4% of the time the suit would have broken 5-0 . How do you reply when they say
how about the other 96% of the time when the suits do not break 5-0 ?
Pessimists always accuse optimists of being lucky .
No they are not any more lucky than anybody else . The
odds favour good breaks 68 % of the time in 4-4 fits.
Good players with the help of opponents bidding & counting out the hands can bring in
finesses maybe 6 or 7 times out of 10
. Pessimists do not even give themselves a chance to have such “Bridge luck” . They just see worst case scenarios all the time so it
paralyzes them in their decision making . What if
partner has KQJ of the
opponents trump so I might not make my contract ? My reply is what about the
other 97 times out of a 100 when I do not have that holding so you can make 5 , 6, or 7 in your contract. Rose coloured glasses are an asset in Bridge .
Most good players are optimists & aggressive . By taking
the optimistic approach & bidding tight games, you are almost gambling a
push board. Taking a pessimistic view & staying in a partial
, you are gambling losing 12 IMPS to gain 140 + 100 or +6 IMPS . That is
2 to 1 against so you better be right ! The late Mike Chomyn taught me a concept a couple of decades ago . We were down 50 IMPS at the half in a regional K.O. in
Calgary against a pro team . He explained the concept
of “negative swinging” . He told us not to bid
tight games or slams & take no chances period. If the cards break badly , the finesses lose & if reasonable gambles do not
pay off , our “swinging” might get us out . We all heeded his advice so we won
the second half 65 –12 mainly on terrible bad luck for the opponents ! We have
all lost to Mama/Papa teams that way …
Optimism coupled with good judgment is the way to play Bridge . It has been proved time & time again . The power of positive thinking vrs the power of negative thinking .
It is no contest …