Monday, April 21, 2003 3:25 AM
Hand Evaluation – Doubles ( Taking out Insurance )
PITBULLS:
I going to quote a good Polish philosopher / player ( Klimo ). “ Take the cheap
insurance from time to time & you will be ahead by a mile!!! “ I think the frequent playing of “match
points” is screwing up our IMP game philosophy . In match points
, we are so scared of a minus that we visualize the worst
case scenario all the time so do not “take out insurance” . In IMP’s , the insurance
to bid one more time to prevent a double partial/game/slam swing is the winning
strategy . When you guess wrong & blow 200 to prevent a –19 loss , it is a small price to pay . When the
opponents get lucky so make a doubled game on a forcing pass auction ,
it is only –4 as partners are assumed to be in the game also . So , one good result with a forcing pass auction you get +12
in return , so 3 bad results of a
doubled game making you break even !
Penalty doubles are a recipe for disaster. A pull of a double
with a void & a 6 - 5 is taking out insurance against a disaster . You stand way more to lose by leaving in a double
than bidding again if you can get out cheaply . It is
just plain logic . In poker ,
there is a concept of “pot odds” where
you only gamble when your expected gain matches the probability of
success of your hand . In Bridge , it is similar
but in a different manner . What are the expectations
of your possible loss ,
when you do not “take out insurance” . Is there a double game swing ? Do you have a slam ? Do you
have a grand slam ? What is your expected loss if
there is a worst case scenaio ? Back to Klimo’s quote above .
Playing D.S.I.P. competitive doubles is “taking out insurance” against bad penalty doubles in competition. By not allowing penalty doubles in competition unless converted by partner , many disasters are avoided. Penalty doubles only occur when partner has defense with you having their trump , which is a lethal mixture for the opponents. The single handed “penalty doubles” being removed from competitive auctions , should result in lowering the premiums against doubling the opponents from partials into game.
On the infamous disaster Jones
& I had , Lorna & Lorna also had a disaster
the other direction . Lorna doubled 5♣ & they made it when they had a
sacrifice that made 5 their way ! Lorna felt that Lloyda could have saved the day by pulling the double with
her 6 –5 in the majors . However ,
Klimo says “wait a minute” , why can’t Lorna take out
cheap insurance & bid 5♥ instead of
doubling ? Lorna doubled 5♣ with
the AJx of clubs finding the KQ on the board to hold
it to 5 . If
the club honours were split ,
the hand makes 6 . Why gamble with a double when cheap insurance is probably 100 . You get rewarded when partner actually makes this
hand .
Peter Jones held
♠xxx ♥xx ♦J10xx ♣AKQx
against Kiz & Klimo . I
opened a diamond nv , Klimo bid 2♦ vul . Peter bid 3♣
& Kiz bid 3♠ . I leaped to 5♣ so Klimo bid 5♠. Peter
doubled but they made 5 spades doubled vulnerable . If he had taken out
insurance by bidding 6♣/♦ not vul , he
would have been rewarded as I can make either contract . Again , Peter did not know that we could make 6 of a minor .
It is just an IMP insurance bid against disaster . Peter
had all his HCP’s located in my suits , so 20
imps is a lot to explain in one hand .
The most stupid bid in Bridge is to be fixated on your hand &
not take action in a forcing pass situation . Say partner doubles an initial bid of 2♦ , when the opponents
bid 4♥ he now bids 4♠ . The opponents persist to 5 hearts &
partner who has done all this bidding passes . This
pass has to be forcing as he doubled
& bid game all by himself. The pass says he wants to play the hand when
your hand is suitable & double if it is not . He
could hold 24 HCP for all you know . Your hand is
♠xxx
♥xxx ♦xxxx ♣xxx
Do you pass because you hand is so weak ?
A pass would destroy the partnership . Your double card should hit the
table very fast.
When you double , your
hand has got nothing to do with this auction . You are just following forcing pass orders &
choosing your option .
Being ashamed of your opener is no reason to pass a forcing pass . You hold ♠void ♥KQ10x ♦K109xx ♣KJxx . You open a diamond , hear 2♦ to your left & partner bids 2♥ showing a limit raise or better . The opponents bid 2♠ , you pass with the opponents bidding 4♠ & partner makes a forcing pass . You have quite a dog . Maybe you should pass in case they make it ? Not on your life , partner could have 4 Aces therefore wondering if there was a grand . I actually held 3 Aces so 5♦ makes . This was a double game swing as 4♠ makes .
Anyway , one thing I have learned in Bridge
over the years is the importance of “forcing passes” . Forcing pass’s are taking out insurance when the
opponents are meddling in your auction.
It is right up there with the most important concepts in Bridge . In rubber bridge
, you do have the luxury of “forcing passes” because you need
a partner you can trust. With your regular partner
, you should have forcing passes discussed inside & out . This is my
5th e-mail just around this subject to the Pitbulls.
I think a book can be written on all the nuances. When you do not play forcing passes , play with
the dentist so all penalty doubles show 100 honours
in trump . You do not have to think or make any decisions that
way . However , finding a good partner
will prove pretty difficult in the long run …