Wednesday, July 24, 2002 2:41 AM
Hand Evaluation – Balancing ( Optimism vrs Pessimism )
PITBULLS:
If I had a dollar for every time Peter Jones said to Dave Smith “You
optimist Butcher !!”,
I would be a millionaire . Butcher does play the game with “rose coloured glasses” so it lands him in messes from time to time . However , basing your game of Bridge on pessimism & worst case scenario all the time is much worse .
Bridge is played from randomly dealt cards that in the long run have to obey
the laws of probability .
Quite often the worst case scenario is odds against ever
happening but yet people base their bid on this one statistical event so ignore all other possibilities.
Playing in Montreal last year against a team that won the event the
previous year , I noticed that they played a forcing club system so opened super
light garbage all the time. You must
be aware of garbage openers as they
are in effect a systemic psyche with
forcing club players. Quite often pessimism will occur in balancing . We have all had a bad experience or two with
balancing in our Bridge lives. The “what if” scenarios of finding partner with
her expected points in the opponents hand ,so going for a number is a possibility. Is it an odds on possibility though ?? Say you do
not balance in a period over 10 hands . On four of the hands you had a
partial your way , on three of them you could have
pushed them higher , one you had a game your way & two it did not matter .
In this stretch of hands on the double partial swings you have lost 6 imps , 6 imps , 6 imps , 6 imps . In the partials you could
have pushed them higher you have lost 4 IMPS & 4 IMPS.,
The game they stole from you have lost 10 IMPS .
You have
lost 40 IMPS to a team that opens super light garbage by not balancing .
You could have balanced & gone for –500 against their 140 & lose 360
for an 8 imps loss 5 times to break even !! I
am sure that this team in Montreal robbed opponents blind on occasion with
their garbage openers because of a lack of balancing by the other teams . Again , quoting Klimo the great
Polish philosopher “ the greatest risk is not taking one” . This
is the poker player mentality I
discussed previously . Poker players gamble
when in the long run it will pay off . Not gambling
when the time calls for it will result in being a losing Poker player. I repeat
my advice. Play Bridge like a good poker player !
Gamble when in the long run
it will pay off !
It is less of a gamble balancing against advocates of garbage openers.
They do not trust each other &
for good reason ! Responder doubles with her 10 HCP’s
only to find out that she holds more HCP’s than partner who had “opened”. From bitter experience, these types usually
avoid penalty doubles. Thus in effect gives you a competitive advantage against
the garbage opener types.
P ?
1♠ 2♠
P
P
♠xx ♥xx
♦QJxxx ♣AKxx
If you balance 2NT can you go for –500 ? Yes , in the worst case scenario you can . Bui in this
auction the opponents have only announced half the deck .
Partner can have up to 10 HCP with cards in the minors for a double
partial swing . Therefore , you balance 2NT &
expect to not go for 500 .
Pessimism hurts you in the play of the hand also .
Safety plays for bad breaks are
necessary when the hand is otherwise cold. However ,
suits do not always break badly & finesses do not always lose. When you cannot afford to play for bad breaks , assume they are breaking & everything is rosy.
I have seen so many declarers go down in slams & games they could have made
because they were playing for bad breaks or positions that were against
the odds in the first place. When the suits did break
, you explain to partner well in 4% of the time the suit would have
broken 5-0 . How do you reply when they say how about the other 96% of the time
when the suits do not break 5-0 ?
Pessimists always accuse optimists of being lucky .
No they are not any more lucky than anybody else . The
odds favour good breaks 68 % of the time in 4-4 fits.
Good players with the help of opponents bidding & counting out the hands can bring in finesses maybe 6 or 7 times out of 10 . Pessimists do not even give
themselves a chance to have such “Bridge luck” . They
just see worst case scenarios all the time so it paralyzes them in their
decision making . What if partner has KQJ of the opponents
trump so I might not make my contract ? My reply is what about the other 97
times out of a 100 when I do not have that holding so you can make 5 , 6, or 7 in your contract. Rose coloured glasses are an asset in Bridge .
Most good players are optimists
& aggressive . By taking the optimistic approach &
bidding tight games, you are almost gambling a push board. Taking a pessimistic
view & staying in a partial , you are gambling
losing 12 IMPS to gain 140 + 100 or +6 IMPS . That is 2 to 1 against so you
better be right ! The late Mike Chomyn
taught me a concept a couple of decades ago . We were
down 50 IMPS at the half in a regional K.O. in Calgary against a pro team . He explained the concept of “negative swinging” . He told us not to bid tight games or slams &
take no chances period. When the cards break badly ,
the finesses lose & if reasonable gambles do not pay off , our “swinging”
might get us out . We all heeded his advice so we won the second half 65 –12
mainly on terrible bad luck for the opponents ! We have all lost to Mama/Papa teams that way
…
Optimism coupled with good judgment is the way to play Bridge . It has been proved time & time again . The power of positive thinking vrs the power of negative
thinking . It is no contest …